{"id":753,"date":"2025-03-01T20:42:28","date_gmt":"2025-03-01T20:42:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/?page_id=753"},"modified":"2025-03-04T11:11:29","modified_gmt":"2025-03-04T11:11:29","slug":"synopsis-2-the-school-of-2030-an-exercise-in-social-science-fiction","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/2030-education-technology-to-the-future\/synopsis-2-the-school-of-2030-an-exercise-in-social-science-fiction\/","title":{"rendered":"Synopsis 2:  The school of 2030 &#8211; social science fiction."},"content":{"rendered":"<style>div {font-size: 1.04em;}<\/style>\n<h5><b>Synopsis: Neil Selwyn et al 2019b: \u201cWhat might the school of 2030 be like? An exercise in social science fiction.\u201d<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Social science fiction may be thought of as the evocation of the sociological imagination and, for the social scientist, writing stories may be seen as a \u201cmethodology for grasping the social\u201d. It is a thought-experiment in social science exploring what social order might result from changing technological conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This paper presents three vignettes describing the imagined student and teacher experience centre in a school ten years from now in 2030 set in Melbourne, Australia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The vignettes rest on several assumptions:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2030 is the limit of prediction (but we cannot know for sure how technology and automation will be implemented); most schools will still have technologies in use that date from the late 2010s;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The institutional and organisational forms of schooling will not change dramatically over the next few decades and rest on long-standing\u00a0 processes and customs.. This includes such core principles as standardisation of curriculum, the low-stakes and high-stakes measurement of outcomes and a hierarchical management structure;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Schooling will become a never ending pursuit as he distinction between leisure time and school time has dissolves.\u00a0 Schooling becomes flexible, nomadic, precarious, unpredictable, productivity focussed, less social and individualised. For some this might mean a freer style; for others more oppressive;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Schooling will be increasingly defined by code \u2013 physical spaces and code are mutually bound. Code is a mode of power and a logic of control. \u2018Digital knowing; is expressed through the \u2018dashboard\u2019 which displays what the school knows about the student. Code limits freedom of action by setting parameters for what is permissible and what is required. Schools become sensor rich; tracking and surveillance are normalised. As a result the reliance on wider infrastructure increases such as power supplies and networking components which are both vulnerable an unequally distributed;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Schools will become more dependent on learning management systems which collect and interpret large amounts data about student performance, about what teachers teach, how they teach it, what students have learned, and how their LMS profile maps their past and future. While there a dependence on data this is asymmetric. Schools use data to control students, not the other way about. There is a blending of computation and psychology. Issues of \u2018mental privacy\u2019 arise as emotions and affective states become both public and treated as potential deficits;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Minds and bodies can be manipulated more directly but human psychology and affect are messy and complex. Attempting to frame them with code creates a new kind of \u2018digital intolerance\u2019 because human beings are not precise or certain;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Digital schooling will leave little room for spontaneous action. All actions will be directed to meeting the goals of schooling: passing exams, securing jobs, following scripts. But this is not a strait-jacket \u2013 there are moments of resistance and enlightenment.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><b>VIGNETTE 1:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2018Lakeside High School \u2018<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An 11-18 publicly funded inner city school set in a relatively affluent neighbourhood. 2000 students on roll, 30 senior exam level staff and 20 generalist staff. There has been a programme of rebuilding and refurbishment of much of the physical accommodation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The school has significant IT, outsourced infrastructure provided by an official corporate provider. Teaching and learning is provided by a mix of f2f and online classes, some of which are followed in individual booths in the school learning centre and some from home. Students are required to provide their own \u2018learning ready\u2019 device for school work, either a high-end smartphone with keyboard capability or an entry-level laptop. Through its LMS (Oracle) run by a Google affiliate the school manages its record keeping, communication, curriculum tracking, production and circulation of learning and teaching resources (known as \u2018scripts), annual assessments required by the State, formal examinations, work placements and employment routes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>VIGNETTE 2:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2018Testing Times\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mia is a full-time Y12 senior student. Her physical presence on campus is not required and she attends infrequently but follows online courses from home whenever she can. Unexpectedly, and unusually, she receives an \u2018<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">urgent request to attend<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019 from the principal\u2019s office. She has never met the principal and in 12 months has had only one meeting with her form tutor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The principal tells her that following her formal online external test the system has suggested that she cheated because her test result was not consistent with her overall performance profile.Biometric data confirms that she logged in and took the test but her answers did not match her normal test-taking profile. Her result was way above what was expected based on test results from previous years. \u201c \u2026 we\u2019re not sure what you\u2019ve done here but this has to go down on your profile as a fraudulent attempt.\u201d Mia responds\u00a0 that she has been cramming with an online group in the US and was coached to try something different for the exams \u201c\u2026 it\u2019s not what it looks \u2026\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The principal points out that the system is \u2018tight\u2019 especially with external examinations. All the key data points indicate malpractice and there\u2019s nothing to be done. Her access to the learning platform is suspended for 60 days and then she can take a <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">supervised <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">retest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As Mia sets off to her part time job she knew this would have a bad effect on her university applications and that her parents would be notified, which would not go well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>VIGNETTE 3: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2018going off script\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Laura is a first year teacher with an English specialism, waiting for her lesson script to download to her tablet for the next session but the network is slow and time is short. The next class is not a motivated group and she has been unable to engage them. They viewed writing instrumentally, as a way to get grades not as a way to explore or experiment with ideas and expression.The script for the lesson fails to download and the class is starting. She has to wing it but her senior leading teacher to whom she reports will not be happy that the class will have achieved anything fewer than 15 of the 30 scripted outcomes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Laura reflects how quickly she had become dependent on the Oracle platform. All her performance indicators,reporting of students progress, lesson content even pedagogical strategies are based on Oracle. So what was the point in going off script, even if she had initially expected that teaching would require her to plan lessons? Oracle knew her students better than she did using a 5 band differentiation system with script variations for each, and it provides care all her planning and assessment.\u00a0 As a result she had become bored with her own classes \u2026 and the students knew it!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But with no script to work from she grabs a copy of the set text and rushes to the classroom. She decides to set up reading circles and ignores the prescribed bandings set by Oracle so that students would work in mixed groups. At first the students were a little unsettled when asked to rearrange the furniture and form different groupings. Some regarded anxiously the cameras in front of the classroom that live stream into Oracle for any observer to look in on a lesson at any time. They also watched the glass fronted wall of the classroom where the senior teacher often stood to watch the ongoing lesson, tablet in hand.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The time passed quickly and suddenly the session was ending. She hadn\u2019t done any of the usual lesson administration (ticking off scripted steps and outcomes) and the classroom was messier than usual with the sitting, lying or standing around in their reading circles chatting, often enthusiastically, about the book. They are engaged in a way that she had not seen all year \u2013 there was excitement and interest throughout the room. They appeared to be learning!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without warning the senior teacher appeared at the classroom door device in hand, her screen displaying the class number in large flashing red text. Laura knew that the curriculum and assessment authority would be notified of her \u2018contract breach\u2019!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>VIGNETTE 4:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> distant education<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adam wakes up on a school morning to his automated music playlist \u2013 the streaming service knows his preferences and adds and edits tracks automatically. Sometimes he thinks he should be offended. Truth is he isn\u2019t too bothered \u2026 Hie brother is still dozing, but he finished school last year and has been unemployed since then.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Soon Adam will learn his provisional VET score, a route to a BIS degree course at university and an internship wth the school\u2019s corporate sponsor (PwC). His hopes to be placed with an IT corporation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As he enters Lakeside School (Malaysia) Personalised Learning Centre, facial recognition sensors mark him as on-site. He makes for a study booth directly \u2013 there\u2019s no time to chat to other students. Donning his noise-cancelling headset he logs in to his personal learning profile and watches as his learning dashboard is dynamically assembled. Everything here has been determined by his employment track, designed by learning design specialists and his education advisor. Though it seems dull, the possibility of an actual job is enticing \u2013 he does not want to be unemployed like his brother.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The first session begins with a recorded video lesson made by senior teachers in the school although these tend to be of a lower quality than the bought-in resources. Suddenly, there is a power outage, the screen blanks ad the machine shuts down. Frustrated, Adam leaves his booth and the building as do many other students. There is nothing to be done until the power is back. That could take all day. OUtages are becoming more frequent now because more online systems are taking more power from the overloaded regional grid.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0Adam goes home!\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>VIGNETTE 5:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2018machines will watch us learn\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">My data tells me that school has changed. Once there were no machines watching and keeping students in line. Now the intelligent behaviour management system scans every part of the school; all students all wear trackable tags; whatever they\u2019re doing is logged and categorised with various judgements, differentiating good or less good actions. Good actions earn merit points, bad actions lose them. Merit points produce a character score. Older people think this is creepy but younger students regard it as normal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Supposedly, it\u2019s about character development.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Classrooms are under continuous surveillance for key behavioural features including inferred attitudes and emotions. Teachers will use the feedback from the system to tell students how they appear to the system and ask what they will do about negative elements.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Students wear biometric wristbands. These deliver mild electric shocks when the system infers a student is off-task in some way. Shocks can vary in intensity from a very mild tingle to a more pronounced when a student\u2019s engagement declines. The system can misjudge demeanour \u2013 it might read a frown as \u2018angry\u2019 when a student is emotionally upset or distraught and display a \u2018red flag\u2019 for the teacher to address.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">My dad was called into the school because the system red-flagged me as \u201cangry\u201d (that was right after my dog had died).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWith respect, Mrs Bradshaw,\u201d said my dad, \u201cmachines makes mistakes.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">She replies, \u201cThis system is never wrong. It is tested and updated regularly \u2026 it has been proven 100% reliable.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the attitude of school leaders is that the system is never wrong. Students do not always know what they are feeling so the judgement of the machine is uppermost. Overall improved performance is the goal and who can argue against that? However, the teachers do not know nor can they explain how the system works even if it is trusted and appears to produce results.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And so the cycle continues \u2013 faith in the machine versus misunderstanding student behaviour.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Synopsis: Neil Selwyn et al 2019b: \u201cWhat might the school of 2030 be like? An exercise in social science fiction.\u201d Social science fiction may be thought of as the evocation of the sociological imagination and, for the social scientist, writing stories may be seen as a \u201cmethodology for grasping the social\u201d. It is a thought-experiment [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":783,"menu_order":4,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-753","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=753"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/753\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":910,"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/753\/revisions\/910"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/783"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/davidlongman.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}